How the Street's calls on semi equipment played out
Sell-side price targets on semi equipment names over the last two years, checked over each firm's own horizon: 221 of 395 resolved targets (56%) were reached while they stood, 173 were replaced by the same firm first, and 1 fell short at their deadline.
5 names · 17 firms with 8+ resolved targets here · checked through 2026-10-29. Rebuilt every morning.
Firm by firm on semi equipment
| # | Firm | Targets reached | Replaced early | Short | Resolved | Ratings vs sector | Names |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wells Fargo | 15 (47%) | 17 | 0 | 32 | 2 of 2 | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX |
| 2 | Cantor Fitzgerald | 10 (33%) | 20 | 0 | 30 | 3 of 3 | AMAT KLAC LRCX TER |
| UBS | 16 (55%) | 13 | 0 | 29 | 3 of 3 | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Morgan Stanley | 12 (44%) | 15 | 0 | 27 | — | AMAT KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Stifel | 12 (50%) | 12 | 0 | 24 | 2 of 3 | AMAT KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Citigroup | 14 (58%) | 10 | 0 | 24 | 4 of 4 | AMAT KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Mizuho | 8 (35%) | 15 | 0 | 23 | 1 of 1 | AMAT LRCX | |
| Needham | 10 (46%) | 12 | 0 | 22 | 3 of 3 | AMAT KLAC LRCX | |
| JPMorgan | 13 (59%) | 9 | 0 | 22 | 4 of 4 | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Susquehanna | 11 (69%) | 5 | 0 | 16 | 3 of 3 | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Evercore ISI Group | 9 (60%) | 6 | 0 | 15 | 3 of 3 | AMAT KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Bank of America | 11 (79%) | 3 | 0 | 14 | 3 of 3 | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX TER | |
| Barclays | 10 (71%) | 4 | 0 | 14 | 1 of 1 | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX | |
| B. Riley Securities | 6 (43%) | 8 | 0 | 14 | 2 of 2 | AMAT LRCX | |
| Goldman Sachs | 9 (64%) | 5 | 0 | 14 | 2 of 2 | AMAT KLAC LRCX TER | |
| KeyBanc | 6 (50%) | 6 | 0 | 12 | 1 of 1 | AMAT LRCX TER | |
| RBC Capital | 6 (54%) | 5 | 0 | 11 | — | AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX |
Numbered firms have 30+ resolved targets in this sector and are ordered by the share reached; the rest are listed by volume, unranked. A record inside one sector is a slice of a slice: none of these counts is a measure of skill, and none carries a letter. How targets and ratings are checked →
The names
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How calls are checked
Every call is checked on the firm's own terms. A price target is followed until its own deadline (12 months unless the firm publishes a different horizon) and ends as reached (the stock closed at or beyond it while it stood), replaced (the same firm set a new target first) or short at deadline. A rating is compared with the stock's sector SPDR ETF on total return over the rating's life, because most big-firm ratings are relative: Overweight means "beat its peers", not "go up". Hold-type ratings are tracked, not graded. A firm is numbered only with 30+ resolved targets, and a letter prints only for a firm's whole record where an exact test separates it from a coin flip. None of this is a verdict on anyone's skill, and one day is never a grade. The full method →
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