How the Street's calls on pharma played out
Sell-side price targets on pharma names over the last two years, checked over each firm's own horizon: 151 of 320 resolved targets (47%) were reached while they stood, 165 were replaced by the same firm first, and 4 fell short at their deadline.
5 names · 13 firms with 8+ resolved targets here · checked through 2026-10-29. Rebuilt every morning.
Firm by firm on pharma
| # | Firm | Targets reached | Replaced early | Short | Resolved | Ratings vs sector | Names |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guggenheim | 17 (42%) | 23 | 0 | 40 | 3 of 5 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE |
| 2 | Morgan Stanley | 5 (12%) | 37 | 0 | 42 | 2 of 2 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE |
| Citigroup | 9 (36%) | 16 | 0 | 25 | 2 of 2 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE | |
| Wells Fargo | 9 (41%) | 13 | 0 | 22 | 3 of 3 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK | |
| Bank of America | 12 (54%) | 9 | 1 | 22 | 2 of 2 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE | |
| RBC Capital | 11 (52%) | 10 | 0 | 21 | 1 of 1 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE | |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 8 (44%) | 10 | 0 | 18 | 2 of 2 | ABBV LLY MRK PFE | |
| JPMorgan | 7 (50%) | 7 | 0 | 14 | 2 of 2 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE | |
| UBS | 7 (58%) | 5 | 0 | 12 | 3 of 3 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE | |
| BMO Capital | 7 (58%) | 5 | 0 | 12 | 1 of 1 | ABBV LLY MRK PFE | |
| Barclays | 5 (50%) | 4 | 1 | 10 | 1 of 1 | ABBV JNJ LLY MRK PFE | |
| Truist Securities | 4 (50%) | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 of 3 | ABBV LLY MRK PFE | |
| Raymond James | 6 (75%) | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 of 2 | ABBV JNJ |
Numbered firms have 30+ resolved targets in this sector and are ordered by the share reached; the rest are listed by volume, unranked. A record inside one sector is a slice of a slice: none of these counts is a measure of skill, and none carries a letter. How targets and ratings are checked →
The names
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How calls are checked
Every call is checked on the firm's own terms. A price target is followed until its own deadline (12 months unless the firm publishes a different horizon) and ends as reached (the stock closed at or beyond it while it stood), replaced (the same firm set a new target first) or short at deadline. A rating is compared with the stock's sector SPDR ETF on total return over the rating's life, because most big-firm ratings are relative: Overweight means "beat its peers", not "go up". Hold-type ratings are tracked, not graded. A firm is numbered only with 30+ resolved targets, and a letter prints only for a firm's whole record where an exact test separates it from a coin flip. None of this is a verdict on anyone's skill, and one day is never a grade. The full method →
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