How often is the Street right?
Across 10 graded months, 51% of the Street's calls were right 30 days later (2257 of 4435). The best month was August 2026 at 64%; the worst, March 2026 at 38%. A Hold only counts when it was a downgrade or upgrade, or its price target leaned 10%+ one way, so nobody gets credit for sitting on the fence.
11 months · Holds read through their rating change or price target · each month frozen once it closes.
Directional hit rate by month
The 50% line is a coin flip. Faded bar = month still in progress.
Every report card
| Month | Hit rate | Calls graded | Bullish right | Top firm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 52.7% | 201 | 54.0% | Barclays 8/9 | In progress |
| August 2026 | 63.8% | 693 | 64.9% | Evercore ISI Group 22/27 | Frozen |
| July 2026 | 48.5% | 305 | 48.6% | Morgan Stanley 15/19 | Frozen |
| June 2026 | 53.6% | 364 | 55.2% | Bernstein 9/9 | Frozen |
| May 2026 | 49.2% | 594 | 50.4% | Wedbush 8/10 | Frozen |
| April 2026 | 48.7% | 300 | 48.4% | Goldman Sachs 8/11 | Frozen |
| March 2026 | 37.7% | 451 | 36.7% | Truist Securities 8/15 | Frozen |
| February 2026 | 49.7% | 499 | 49.1% | Susquehanna 13/15 | Frozen |
| January 2026 | 52.6% | 302 | 53.0% | Jefferies 9/10 | Frozen |
| December 2025 | 49.6% | 347 | 48.9% | Morgan Stanley 11/17 | Frozen |
| November 2025 | 49.1% | 580 | 47.9% | Morgan Stanley 22/32 | Frozen |
How the report cards are graded
Each month collects the sell-side calls whose 30-day mark fell in that month. Bullish calls are right when the stock is higher 30 days later, bearish ones when it is lower. A downgrade to Hold counts as a bearish call and an upgrade to Hold as a bullish one; a maintained Hold whose price target sits 10%+ away from the price leans that way. True Holds, with a target near the price, are not graded. Same rules as the 12-month scorecard. A month is frozen the morning after it closes and never edited. Data: Yahoo Finance rating history and daily closes. Nothing here is advice.
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The AM take, today's docket and the Street's calls — one email, weekdays, before the open.