AR analyst scorecard
44 rating changes on AR in the last 12 months. 55% of bullish calls were right at 30 days. Street grade C on 39 scored calls. Consensus target $50, 30% above the last close.
Graded through 2026-09-14 · last close $38.16 (2026-09-14). Rebuilt every morning.
Holds on AR, read: 1 cut to or raised to Hold (graded as the change) · 7 Holds whose target leaned 10%+ one way (graded that way, 71.4% right) · 2 true Holds, not graded.
Firm by firm
| Firm | Calls | Scored | Right | Accuracy | Grade | Avg 30d | Avg 90d | Latest | Date | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | A | +6.5% | +7.6% | Overweight | 2026-07-31 | $57 |
| Barclays | 8 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | B | +1.2% | +2.7% | Equal-Weight | 2026-08-17 | $45 |
| Morgan Stanley | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | B | +0.1% | +2.3% | Overweight | 2026-06-29 | $48 |
| UBS | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | C | +0.7% | +1.7% | Buy | 2026-07-31 | $52 |
| Goldman Sachs | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | +0.5% | — | Buy | 2026-09-02 | $48 |
| Benchmark | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | — | +3.1% | -6.1% | Buy | 2026-08-12 | $47 |
| JPMorgan | 3 | 3 | 2 | — | — | -4.3% | +3.9% | Neutral | 2026-07-08 | $45 |
| Truist Securities | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | -2.2% | -21.5% | Buy | 2026-07-09 | $52 |
| Jefferies | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | — | +8.8% | +4.7% | Buy | 2026-02-13 | $50 |
| Citigroup | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | — | -0.2% | -9.0% | Buy | 2026-08-03 | $45 |
| Mizuho | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | — | -0.9% | +7.7% | Outperform | 2026-06-25 | $57 |
| Bank of America | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | -7.9% | -4.8% | Buy | 2026-04-21 | $44 |
| Raymond James | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | Strong Buy | 2026-09-01 | $55 |
| BMO Capital | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | -13.8% | +4.7% | Market Perform | 2025-12-09 | $40 |
Dimmed rows have fewer than 4 scored calls on AR — too few to grade.
Every call, last 12 months
| Date | Firm | Change | Action | Graded as | Price at call | Run before | +30d | +60d | +90d | Target · 90d check | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Goldman Sachs | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $39.59 | +8.5% | — | — | — | $48 | pending |
| 2026-09-01 | Raymond James | Strong Buy → Strong Buy | maintained | Bullish | $39.81 | +10.2% | — | — | — | $55 | pending |
| 2026-08-17 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +23% | $36.40 | +8.4% | — | — | — | $45 | pending |
| 2026-08-12 | Benchmark | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $37.48 | +9.3% | +2.5% | — | — | $47 | ✓ |
| 2026-08-03 | Citigroup | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $36.48 | +3.1% | +8.5% | — | — | $45 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | UBS | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $36.14 | +3.5% | +6.5% | — | — | $52 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-31 | Wells Fargo | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $36.14 | +3.5% | +6.5% | — | — | $57 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-30 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +30% | $35.30 | +0.5% | +9.0% | — | — | $46 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | UBS | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $33.92 | -2.6% | +8.6% | +12.5% | — | $50 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | Truist Securities | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $34.49 | -0.5% | +7.5% | +13.3% | — | $52 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-08 | JPMorgan | Neutral → Neutral | maintained | Leans bullish · Neutral, target +29% | $34.66 | -2.4% | +0.1% | +12.8% | — | $45 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | Goldman Sachs | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $35.14 | -1.7% | +0.5% | +9.5% | — | $41 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | Morgan Stanley | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $34.44 | -3.7% | +2.0% | +11.6% | — | $48 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | Mizuho | Outperform → Outperform | maintained | Bullish | $34.50 | -3.6% | -1.9% | +9.9% | — | $57 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +29% | $34.71 | -5.5% | +1.6% | +9.2% | — | $45 | ✓ |
| 2026-05-27 | Mizuho | Outperform → Outperform | maintained | Bullish | $35.11 | -8.1% | +0.2% | -3.6% | +8.1% | $54 missed | ✓ |
| 2026-05-01 | UBS | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $38.89 | -4.8% | -5.5% | -9.6% | -9.2% | $56 missed | ✗ |
| 2026-04-21 | Bank of America | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $37.16 | -13.8% | -0.3% | -8.4% | -10.6% | $44 missed | ✗ |
| 2026-04-17 | Morgan Stanley | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $36.68 | -11.6% | +4.6% | -7.5% | -9.1% | $56 missed | ✓ |
| 2026-03-31 | Citigroup | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $42.44 | +15.3% | -7.5% | -13.4% | -18.9% | $53 missed | ✗ |
| 2026-03-24 | Truist Securities | Hold → Buy | initiated | Bullish | $43.37 | +22.0% | -11.9% | -17.4% | -21.5% | $56 missed | ✗ |
| 2026-03-16 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | True hold · target +4% | $41.03 | +18.0% | -11.4% | -6.8% | -17.1% | $43 missed | not graded |
| 2026-03-05 | Benchmark | Hold → Buy | upgrade | Bullish | $38.91 | +14.5% | +3.7% | +1.6% | -6.1% | $44 missed | ✓ |
| 2026-03-05 | UBS | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $38.91 | +14.5% | +3.7% | +1.6% | -6.1% | $48 missed | ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | Jefferies | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $34.76 | +8.8% | +18.0% | +3.9% | +6.7% | $50 missed | ✓ |
| 2026-02-13 | Wells Fargo | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $34.76 | +8.8% | +18.0% | +3.9% | +6.7% | $52 missed | ✓ |
| 2026-01-23 | Morgan Stanley | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $34.29 | +0.3% | -0.8% | +26.5% | +11.4% | $46 missed | ✗ |
| 2026-01-21 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +19% | $34.24 | +1.8% | +3.8% | +24.3% | +8.5% | $41 missed | ✓ |
| 2025-12-12 | Wells Fargo | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $35.19 | +2.1% | -8.1% | -4.0% | +14.7% | $49 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-12-12 | UBS | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $35.19 | +2.1% | -8.1% | -4.0% | +14.7% | $46 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-12-11 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +28% | $35.95 | +2.1% | -10.1% | -4.8% | +10.3% | $46 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-12-10 | Bank of America | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $37.13 | +9.7% | -15.5% | -7.8% | +0.9% | $47 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-12-09 | Morgan Stanley | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $37.35 | +11.0% | -13.8% | -8.3% | +4.7% | $48 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-12-09 | BMO Capital | Market Perform → Market Perform | maintained | True hold · target +7% | $37.35 | +11.0% | -13.8% | -8.3% | +4.7% | $40 hit | not graded |
| 2025-12-08 | JPMorgan | Overweight → Neutral | downgrade | Bearish · cut to Neutral | $37.30 | +10.8% | -11.9% | -7.9% | +4.8% | $39 hit | ✓ |
| 2025-11-03 | Wells Fargo | Equal-Weight → Overweight | upgrade | Bullish | $33.14 | -0.5% | +9.8% | +3.2% | +1.4% | $39 missed | ✓ |
| 2025-10-30 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +33% | $30.03 | -10.5% | +19.1% | +15.2% | +14.8% | $40 missed | ✓ |
| 2025-10-14 | Morgan Stanley | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $31.61 | — | +8.6% | +10.2% | +2.3% | $44 missed | ✓ |
| 2025-10-07 | Barclays | Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight | maintained | Leans bullish · Equal-Weight, target +23% | $33.90 | — | -3.8% | +10.0% | -3.0% | $42 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-10-03 | Jefferies | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $33.32 | — | -0.5% | +4.2% | +2.7% | $47 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-10-02 | JPMorgan | Overweight → Overweight | maintained | Bullish | $33.49 | — | -1.1% | +6.8% | +2.9% | $44 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-09-23 | Citigroup | Neutral → Buy | upgrade | Bullish | $33.34 | — | -1.7% | +3.7% | +0.8% | $39 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-09-15 | Mizuho | Outperform → Outperform | maintained | Bullish | $32.47 | — | -1.0% | +5.8% | +7.3% | $41 missed | ✗ |
| 2025-09-15 | UBS | Buy → Buy | maintained | Bullish | $32.47 | — | -1.0% | +5.8% | +7.3% | $42 missed | ✗ |
Also in Nat Gas & LNG
Interactive version with the price chart and target overlay: Scorecard tab on the dashboard. All covered names: index.
How the grading works
Every sell-side rating change from the last 365 days is priced the day it lands and checked again 30, 60 and 90 days later. A call is a hit when the stock moved in the called direction at 30 days. Buy- and Sell-side ratings call their own direction. A Hold is read, not waved through: a downgrade to Hold is graded as a bearish call and an upgrade to Hold as a bullish one, and a maintained Hold whose price target sits 10%+ above the price leans bullish (10%+ below, leans bearish) and is graded that way. A Hold with a target close to the price is a true Hold and is not graded at all. Every call with a price target also gets a target check 90 days later: hit (reached it or within 5%), close (covered at least half the distance) or missed. A firm's accuracy on a single name prints only after 4 scored calls, and a firm gets its own page only after 10 scored calls across every covered name — below that a percentage is noise. "Run before the call" is the stock's move over the 30 calendar days before the rating landed. Data: Yahoo Finance rating history and daily closes, rebuilt each morning. Nothing on this page is advice.
Get the 7 AM brief
The AM take, today's docket and the Street's calls — one email, weekdays, before the open.